If projections are accurate, Aquaman
and the Lost Kingdom may achieve a domestic box office debut of $37 million to
$43 million over the four-day Christmas weekend. This figure falls
significantly short of the first installment released five years ago and also
lags behind the recent $46.1 million opening of The Marvels, a box office
disappointment from rival Marvel Studios.
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| Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom,' 'Migration,' 'Anyone But You' and The Iron Claw |
Despite the anticipated lower performance, Aquaman 2 is expected to lead in what appears to be a slow Christmas weekend. The sequel, directed by James Wan and featuring Jason Momoa, concludes a year where the superhero genre has faced challenges in terms of box office success.
Several films are set to open
opposite The Lost Kingdom, with additional releases scheduled for Christmas
Day. However, overall revenue projections do not indicate a particularly
festive outlook. The holiday falling on a Monday, with Christmas Eve seeing a
decline in moviegoing, further compounds the challenge. Additionally, this
year, Christmas Eve falls on a Sunday, traditionally a prime day for
moviegoing.
Comparatively, in 2018, Aquaman's
official three-day opening over the December 21-23 weekend was $67.9 million.
By Christmas Day, a Tuesday, its domestic earnings stood at an impressive
$105.4 million, including revenue from special sneak peeks the preceding
weekend. The Warner Bros. and DC film ultimately grossed $335.1 million domestically
and $1.15 billion globally. However, the sequel, facing delays and reshoots, is
not expected to reach those heights. Its anticipated performance marks a
subdued conclusion to this era of DC before the universe undergoes a reboot in
2025 with Superman: Legacy, led by executives James Gunn and Peter Safran.
Warner Bros. is releasing three year-end holiday event movies—Aquaman, Wonka, and The Color Purple—a bold move, even considering that two of them are musicals.
The recently released Wonka, led by
Timothée Chalamet, had a promising opening last week, garnering $39 million. It
is projected to secure the No. 2 spot over the Christmas weekend with an
estimated $20 million to $23 million. Some industry observers are optimistic
about Wonka potentially emerging as the top year-end holiday performer.
In another test of audience
interest in theatrical animated content, especially original stories,
Illumination and Universal are set to release Migration on Friday. Early tracking
suggests the family film could achieve a four-day gross of $14 million to $15
million. Comparisons with Disney Animation's Wish, which opened to $31.6
million over the five-day Thanksgiving corridor in November, highlight the
challenges and uncertainties surrounding the performance of original animated
films.
While both Migration and Wish are original stories, it remains challenging to draw direct comparisons as the final verdict on Migration's success will only be determined after New Year's weekend, considering the lucrative stretch between Christmas and New Year's. Previous examples, such as Illumination's Sing in 2016 and DreamWorks Animation and Universal's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish in 2021, underscore the varying trajectories of original animated films at the box office.
Migration is expected to secure the
third spot this weekend, with the romantic-comedy Anyone but You from Columbia
following at $6 to $8 million over the four days (Friday-Monday). Starring
Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell, Anyone but You may face competition from A24's
wrestling family drama The Iron Claw, featuring Zac Efron, potentially leading
to a close race.
Additionally, several awards
contenders are expanding their releases, timed to coincide with the holiday.
Notable among them is MGM/Amazon's American Fiction.
The action intensifies on Christmas
Day as another set of films open to capitalize on strong weekday business. The
highly anticipated film adaptation of the Broadway musical The Color Purple,
produced by Oprah Winfrey and Steven Spielberg, is expected to perform well,
tracking to achieve a substantial $10 million to $11 million on its first day.
The holiday season typically sees an increase in theater attendance after
presents are unwrapped, as friends and families seek entertainment options.
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