College Football Playoff expert picks: Will Texas be No. 3?

byRoxaine December 03, 2023

The official College Football Playoff Rankings, slated for release on Sunday, will mark a pivotal moment, shaping both the playoff matchups and the New Year's Six bowls. In this playoff era, at least one team is poised to contend for its inaugural national championship. The choices made by the CFP Selection Committee on Sunday will not merely dictate the teams vying for the title but also identify those with the most feasible journey towards the national crown.

CBS Sports graphic

Regardless of the selected teams, the impending playoffs promise to etch a piece of history before the field expands to 12 teams in the forthcoming season of 2023. As we approach the 2023 season, the anticipation builds for the outcomes that will unfold.

The playoff history thus far has seen the SEC champion consistently securing a spot, with no instance of omission. Alabama, emerging victorious with a 27-24 triumph over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, now faces a potential challenge from Texas, which previously defeated the Crimson Tide 34-24 on September 9.

Notably, an undefeated Power Five team has never been excluded from the playoff. Florida State, despite clinching victory in the ACC Championship Game against Louisville in a hard-fought contest to maintain their flawless record, appeared less than impressive with a third-string, true freshman quarterback at the helm. The absence of star quarterback Jordan Travis, out for the season, adds another layer of complexity to their playoff prospects.

The playoff landscape holds certain historical patterns as the No. 1 team in the penultimate rankings has never been excluded from the playoff. However, this season witnessed the Bulldogs' fall to the Tide, concluding a remarkable 29-game winning streak that dated back to their last loss to Alabama.

Traditionally, no team ranked outside the top six in the penultimate rankings has secured a playoff berth. Nevertheless, this year, Texas, positioned at No. 7 in the previous week's rankings, is anticipated to secure a spot, and Alabama, ranked No. 8, also remains in contention, potentially vying with Texas or Florida State.

As Selection Sunday approaches, the outcome remains uncertain, adding an element of anticipation to see which teams will ultimately earn a coveted spot in the playoff.

Making their cases

Dodd: Washington has unequivocally established itself as the No. 1 seed, facing a more challenging path than Michigan and securing superior victories. Notably, defeating Oregon twice is comparable to beating Ohio State twice. The playoff position appears to be Washington's to lose.

Sallee / Fornelli / Crosby: Florida State, despite entering the CFP with some struggles, deserves a spot as an undefeated Power Five conference champion. The debate lies in its ranking, with suggestions that it doesn't necessarily have to be No. 3. Texas, boasting the season's standout victory – a 10-point road win over the eventual SEC champion, Alabama – stands out. The committee, known to consider injuries in its decisions, faces the dilemma of weighing the impact of injuries to FSU quarterbacks Jordan Travis and Tate Rodemaker against Texas' loss to Oklahoma. The prevailing sentiment is that the latter holds greater significance in determining overall team worth.

eyarajah / Patterson / Cobb: The assessment is straightforward. Michigan, consistently granted a distinct level of respect, maintains its position above Washington. Despite an unattractive 26-0 win over Iowa, it offers ample justification to remain on top. Florida State's offensive performance against Louisville may not have been impressive, but dismissing a 13-0 season and three victories over ranked opponents due to multiple injuries would be unreasonable. With Jordan Travis unlikely to return, the backups will have a full month of first-team reps with their NFL-caliber receiving corps, preparing for primetime. There should be no doubt that the undefeated power conference champion Seminoles deserve a playoff spot. Texas, having secured a 10-point road victory over Alabama, presents a compelling case with a combination of power and a strong resume, positioning them for their first playoff appearance.

Silverstein: While Michigan boasts dominance in its games (ranking No. 1 in scoring margin, a factor the committee values), Washington's more challenging road, including notable road wins against Arizona, USC, and Oregon State, along with two victories over Oregon, holds weight. Michigan's highlight is the impressive victory over Ohio State, but their relatively smooth journey through the first 10 weeks of the season is a consideration. Regarding Florida State, the decision to include them or not hinges on the committee's emphasis on selecting the four "best" teams, and as a hypothetical committee member in this context, that's the criterion guiding the vote.

In contrast to the situation in 2014 when Ohio State thrived with its third-string quarterback Cardale Jones leading a convincing 59-0 victory in his inaugural full start during the Big Ten Championship Game, Florida State (FSU) faced more modest successes with wins over sub-.500 Florida, where backup Tate Rodemaker played, and a Louisville team with an inflated record of two losses (with freshman Brock Glenn).

Notably, FSU's most significant triumph occurred in Week 1, while Alabama has demonstrated considerable improvement over the latter part of the season. Alabama's convincing victory over the top-ranked team in the SEC Championship Game, coupled with their lone loss to another playoff-bound team, strengthens their case. While acknowledging the potential unfairness to FSU, it's challenging to assert that this version of Florida State is a superior CFP contender compared to Alabama. Both teams boast championship-caliber defenses, but Alabama's offensive prowess surpasses FSU's. Consequently, the argument suggests that the Longhorns should secure the No. 3 spot.

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