A new report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) reveals that former President Donald Trump’s proposal for universal tariffs could lead to steep price increases for a wide range of consumer goods, including clothing, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear, and travel products.
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Released just ahead of Election Day, this study adds to the growing body of economic and industry research highlighting the potential inflationary effects of Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
Trump has suggested imposing a 10% to 20% tariff on all imported goods, and he has proposed an even steeper tariff specifically targeting China, with rates between 60% and 100%.
According to the NRF’s analysis, these tariffs would likely result in double-digit price surges across nearly all six major retail categories examined. For instance, the cost of clothing could increase by 12.5% to 20.6%.
Under such a scenario, an $80 pair of men’s jeans would rise to between $90 and $96, while a $100 coat could climb to $112 or even $121.
These price hikes would have a significant impact on consumers, particularly low-income households that allocate a much larger portion of their monthly budgets to clothing than higher-income households, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The NRF’s report also indicated that toy prices could see the largest jumps, with increases between 36.3% and 55.8%. As an example, a $200 crib might rise to between $213 and $219.
On a broader scale, the NRF estimates that these increased prices would reduce consumer spending, with a potential $46 billion reduction in purchasing power if Trump were to implement both universal tariffs and elevated China-specific rates.
Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi emphasized to CNBC that “broad-based tariffs on the scale former President Trump has proposed would function as a substantial tax increase on American families.” He explained that these tariffs would force consumers to pay more for imports, diminishing their purchasing power and negatively affecting consumer spending and the overall economy.
The report did not include Trump’s latest proposal, announced Monday, which involves a 25% tariff on Mexico should it fail to enact stricter border regulations—a policy he unveiled during a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Vice President Kamala Harris has seized on the economic critiques of Trump’s tariff plans, describing them as a “Trump sales tax” that would burden American consumers. She advocates for a more selective approach to trade duties.
Nonetheless, many voters resonate with Trump’s stance on tariffs, associating them with a reversal of the free trade practices that, they believe, have harmed American manufacturing towns over the years.
However, a nonpartisan study of Trump’s first term suggests that his tariffs on goods like metals and washing machines did not significantly boost employment in the affected industries.
Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, pointed out that if tariffs on Chinese imports are raised, production is likely to shift to other low-wage countries rather than returning to the United States.
Given the U.S.’s comparatively higher labor costs, she noted that job creation in these sectors would remain limited. Consequently, Americans would likely experience price hikes without seeing substantial job growth in the related industries.
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