The forecast from the real estate
marketplace Zillow indicates that this year's top 10 hottest housing markets
will be distributed across the South, Northeast, and Midwest. However, the
designation of a "hot" market may not necessarily be advantageous for
prospective buyers.
Buffalo, New York, claims the top spot on the list due to the anticipated surge in job growth compared to the number of approved construction permits for new homes.
Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist
at Zillow, explained, "In markets
where there's expected to be significantly more job creation than available
housing supply, homes are likely to sell quickly, leading to robust
appreciation in home values."
The compilation of the list is rooted in an examination of home value appreciation, the duration it takes to sell a home, and the correlation between job growth and housing supply. This crucial information can assist you in determining potential locations for a home search, as well as identifying areas that may be less desirable.
What a ‘hot’ market means for
buyers
"Market heat" is defined
by the intensity of competition among buyers; when the number of buyers exceeds
the number of sellers, it indicates a hot market, according to Divounguy.
"In these areas, competition among homebuyers will be intense,"
he explained. "However, having the
hottest market doesn't necessarily equate to market health."
Market growth in certain areas may
not align with the creation of new jobs. For example, Florida is drawing in
baby boomer residents who are seeking warmer, tax-friendly retirement
locations, as noted by Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President
of Research at the National Association of Realtors.
Lautz emphasized that while the
notion that "the largest share of
homebuyers are baby boomers looking for warmer climates" is a common
idea, it holds true. "They're
exploring warmer regions, attracted by favorable tax conditions and improved
housing affordability."
Additionally, baby boomers, being the generation with the majority of wealth, may include cash buyers, utilizing their home equity for purchases.
Where the housing market is cooling
In contrast, home values are
anticipated to decrease this year in the "coolest markets," referring
to places that will experience lower competitiveness. These locations include
New Orleans, San Antonio, Denver, Houston, and Minneapolis.
The decline is linked to
affordability; if a market becomes less affordable, it is unlikely to witness
the same level of market heat, explained Divounguy.
Denver, for example, was a sought-after destination for homebuyers during the pandemic, but it has evolved into an area where affordability is now constrained.
"Denver
experienced a significant influx of population," noted
Lautz. "Identifying the next
emerging market will be crucial for buyers."
Millennials are expected to be
significant buyers, as most are in their prime homebuying age, and some have
reached their peak earning potential. Unlike baby boomers, who are searching
for retirement-friendly areas, this generation may be looking for employment
opportunities or the flexibility to work remotely in new locations.
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