When Joker: Folie à Deux by Todd Phillips first hit tracking three weeks ago, predictions showed the Warner Bros. film opening with $70 million—$26 million lower than the 2019 original. However, forecasts have since dropped to $50 million to $60 million.
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| Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn and Joaquin Phoenix as Joker in 'Joker Folie à Deux' (2024). Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection |
Why the decline?
This polarizing R-rated sequel, which premiered at the Venice Film Festival to mixed reviews, deviates from the typical fan-driven comic book format, blending genres and infusing musical elements.
While the original Joker drew comparisons to Martin Scorsese's early work, the sequel takes a slower, more introspective approach, focusing on its two main characters.
Though critics have praised the film’s aesthetic, performances, and craftsmanship, its narrative has been criticized. David Rooney, chief film critic at Reporter, called the movie "narratively thin and at times dull" for its two-hour-plus runtime.
These differences may have confused fans of the original Joker, possibly contributing to the dip in projections and slower advance ticket sales. Still, the movie is expected to be a strong contender in the upcoming Oscars race.
Internationally, Joker 2 opens this weekend in most markets, except for Japan and China, where it will debut in the coming weeks. Warner Bros. is aiming for an international opening between $80 million and $85 million.
Joker: Folie à Deux reunites Phillips with Joaquin Phoenix, who returns as Arthur Fleck/Joker after winning the Oscar for Best Actor for the role in 2019. The original Joker had a massive $96.2 million domestic opening, eventually earning $1 billion worldwide, establishing Phillips and Phoenix as major figures at Warner Bros. and giving them the creative freedom to take risks with the sequel.
Initially, both Phillips and Phoenix were uncertain about a sequel and even considered producing a Broadway show before finally committing to the film. The first Joker was produced for just $55 million, but following its success, the budget for the sequel soared to $190 million to $200 million. A portion of that went toward casting Lady Gaga as a character inspired by Harley Quinn, with hopes that she would attract a larger female audience.
In the comics, Joker and Harley have a notorious toxic relationship, and the title Folie à Deux refers to a shared mental disorder between two or more people. The film largely features fantasy musical numbers involving the couple, who meet while Arthur is in Arkham Asylum awaiting trial.
However, neither Warner Bros. nor Phillips labels it a traditional musical since only two characters sing, unlike standard musicals with ensemble performances.
The studio’s marketing has notably avoided emphasizing the film’s musical elements, similar to how they marketed Wonka, and Paramount’s approach with Mean Girls, which were also musicals.
Phillips acknowledges the sequel’s unconventional nature, admitting that it diverges from the original Joker’s conclusion, where Arthur fully embraces his Joker persona. At the Los Angeles premiere, Phillips thanked Warner Bros. for taking “a bold swing” and noted that the sequel isn’t "the one you might expect."
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